So the industry and the fansubbers got together at Otakon, I see...

And here's the report:

[url]http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/convention/2008/fansubs-and-industry-panel[/url]

And here's my comments:

An immediate misnomer off the bat in the report, saying that fansubs
are increasingly overtaking the legitimate industry. That's like
saying the Jamaican sprinters are increasingly overtaking the rest of
the world (in their steroid-laced... Wait, that's another
flamewar...). Past-tense, people.

Fansub groups represented: LivEEvil, Shinsen, and Dattebayo
Industry reps: Funimation (Heiskell), Media Blasters (Sirabella and
Molyneaux)

The whole thing was a farce immediately: The moderator decided not to
let it, in any way, become "us vs. them". This completely undercut
the credibility of the panel, in my opinion. The whole fansub/legit
situation IS "us vs. them", and I think it's clear as to which side is
winning. To not allow the fire to fly across the table basically
undercuts the real issues which are going on here. I really want to
see a knock-down, drag-out war between the sides, because that's
really what it is. I talked to some fans in LA over the weekend, and
one told me basically that the industry has to "get with reality" --
of course, my immediate response would be that that reality no longer
includes the industry.

Another misnomer: "'Collapse or near-collapse' of at least _two_
companies in the market"?? I can give you three right now without
breathing. Bandai Visual USA, Geneon, ADV... And that's just of the
majors. But here's another tidbit for you: A recent study,
commissioned by Central Park Media, indicates over six million fansubs
viewed in one recent week. This confirms the earlier findings by the
Japanese late last year.

And note: That's not just six million downloaded -- that's six
million just _viewed_. I'll get back to that later with some of the
more laughable stuff later.

So the first question asked was how fansubbing affects both sides.

The fansubbers got it right, in saying that fansubbing _does_ still
increase the visibility of anime to a larger base than DVD-based
models can or ever will, especially with the lack of advertising for
non-TV series.

Heiskell tries to present a more complicated view from the industry
side, and fails miserably. He says there's no monolithic industry,
and then, in the next breath, says that it basically impacts everybody
from retailers on up to the Japanese end. First off, it fails because
it impacts everyone as if it were a monolithic industry. The second
failure comes from that the downsizing of the industry is making it
more monolithic over here in the States, both in creation and in
distribution. The third and final failure is that, without a unified
front against the fansubbers, they've got no prayer because of what
the fansubbers just said: They have a much better medium, at the only
price the fans have chosen to accept, and there's no reason for them
to stop because there's no legal penalties being imposed.

The fansubbers then basically gave the argument that the anime
companies can't meet the demands of speed and availability. With a
sales-based model of any kind -- they _CAN'T_. And they won't.

When talking with the people in LA, I gave the example of what I see
as the last of the major US dubs: Ouran. First off, you're talking
about one of the most popular fansubbed series not named Shonen Jump
over the last _two years_. Now that they've finally decided to
release it in America, here's the reality:

Again, it costs about $35K an episode, according to a December, 2007
AnimeAnime (Japanese industry website) report, to license an anime to
America, and another $45-85K an episode to ADR and produce it.

I'll take the middle figure of that range, and accept the $35K for
licensing, even though I think Ouran demanded a MUCH HIGHER price-
tag. So, per ep, we're looking $100K.

That's $1,300,000 for each of the two 13-episode season sets they're
releasing (one in October, the other in January). The approximate
cost of each set is $60 -- assume half of that gets back to Funimation
and do the math.

That's 43,000 copies (approximately) for each season set that they
have to sell _just to break even_.

Does ANYONE in this group wish to believe that even Ouran is going to
sell that well?

Anyone want me to laugh in their face??

Anyone???

Good. Now you understand why they can't meet the demands. Because
the licensing fees are being made so high to recover some of the money
these fansubbers are snatching out of the Japanese's hands!

The entire market has become markedly unsustainable in any way, shape,
or form -- and, in talking to some anime fans in LA, many of the
companies seem to cover their ears to that reality.

So, let's see what other gems I can pull out of this...

Here's another gem for those who think the industry is fine and will
make it: Dattebayo's own numbers indicate that, in a typical week,
there are over 600,000 file transfers from their site.

SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND, and just from Dattebayo.

Consider that that would be 45,000 13-episode DVD sets. That would
put an approximate loss-value, _per week and just Dattebayo_ (at $40/
set, we'll say, just to be real generous) at almost two million
dollars.

That's about $100,000,000 a year, and that's with a generously low
series figure. The loss-value is probably much higher.

And that's just one of these sites. Three of them of just that size
would beat out the entire legitimate US anime industry. (Probably 2,
but I will be generous and cut the figure...)

Still want to tell me the industry will survive this?

Getting into distribution and revenue streams, Sirabella basically
believes an Internet-only model won't be viable, even though video has
always been the main revenue stream for anime. Epic fail. It's the
sales-based model that won't be viable. I've heard people actually
claim (in discussion about "saving anime" and the like) that the anime
industry has to find a way to be satisfied with titles which sell two
thousand copies -- even though that kind of sales wouldn't even cover
the licensure of the first episode.

Talking about sites like BitTorrent, Heiskell stuck his foot in it
again, basically saying that sites like that are hard to interdict,
even though the availability makes such losses undeniable. Without
interdicting and shutting down these sites, Mr. Heiskell, YOU -- HAVE
-- NO -- PRAYER -- FOR -- SURVIVAL -- AS -- AN -- INDUSTRY.

That clear enough for you? You shut down BitTorrent, you sue the fuck
out of YouTube, or there's no more anime industry. The Japanese
actually wanted to start down that road two years ago, and why they
haven't sicced Google with billions in damages, I have no freaking
clue. None.

And to say a firm stand against these sites found support around the
table is laughable: the fansubbers want the rep (and perhaps the
money) some of these other sites are getting, undercutting the
creators. Not only that, but, without shutting them down (as you're
already seeing with CrunchyShit), THEY will become the licensors, THEY
will become the "industry", and THEY will be the ones who control the
stream.

Heiskell then stuffed his foot completely out of his ass for the last
time when he said the most laughable opinion I've heard on the subject
(including even most of yours): That, even though fansubbing will
never disappear, he opines that 30% of anime fans never buy any anime.

Six million downloads a week, CPM estimates, and only 30% never buy
anime??

I'll laugh in your face personally for that number. I'll laugh in the
face of anyone who wishes to opine that 30% of the fanbase even buys
ONE BIT of their anime. I wouldn't believe that 30% of the fans buy
any anime whatsoever??

You mean to tell me that, in an age where some big cons are doubling
attendance and your industry is halving, that you wish to try to tell
me straight-faced that 70% of anime fans buy any of their anime at
all??

WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING???

Then it got to the question of whether the anime companies could get
more aggressive, to which one fansubber replied he would stop
fansubbing if requested, but immediately demand a viable alternative
to watch the anime in question.

WHO THE FUCK DO YOU THINK YOU ARE?? They paid good money for that
contract, and have the right to ask their terms for when, how, and who
sees it. I mean, think: At $35K/ep, they paid a half a million
dollars (a number Gen Fukunaga wants to drop) before they even get
anyone in the studio to dub it, ADR it, etc.

Fact is (and this is why I said that the "overtaking" comment was
ridiculous): The fansubbers, and the fans, want it all on their terms
and don't give two shits otherwise. I guess I can answer my own
question: They think they are the industry. And, as I've been saying
for a while now, it sounds like they have won out.

I just finally have had to come to the decision that the anime
industry is completely inept and incapable of dealing with something
which is killing their industry, and will kill it. The fansubbers,
thieves, and pirates WILL WIN. That decision has been made by the
anime public. If people actually were forced to pay market prices for
their anime tomorrow, AX wouldn't get 12,000 at their next
convention. Most of the smaller shows would cease to exist.

And to hear some of the things said at the panel by the industry
types, it's clear they don't get it, and they won't get it: The
future reality DOES NOT include dubs, DOES NOT include DVD's, and DOES
NOT include _THEM_.

That's why I will stand behind the "one more year", even though, with
the incompetence shown here, they shouldn't be around today, as I said
six months ago.

Mike

On Aug 19, 5:29*pm, darkstar7...@gmail.com wrote:[color=blue]
> And here's the report:
>
> [url]http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/convention/2008/fansubs-and-industry-[/url]...
>
> And here's my comments:[/color]

[Mikey's usual stream of diarrhea snipped.]
[color=blue]
> That's why I will stand behind the "one more year", even though, with
> the incompetence shown here, they shouldn't be around today, as I said
> six months ago.[/color]

Well, guess what? Despite your "mark my words, people" small poultry
blather, they're still around today. They'll still be around in a
year, like they have for over 15 of them already. That's why we don't
take you at all seriously, and never will. Face it. So why don't you
just fuck off and go find a hobby that doesn't involve harassing
people for a change?

Watson.

On Aug 19, 6:11*pm, Dave Watson <dwbeingupfr...@gmail.com> wrote:[color=blue]
> On Aug 19, 5:29*pm, darkstar7...@gmail.com wrote:
>[color=green]
> > And here's the report:[/color]
>[color=green]
> >[url]http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/convention/2008/fansubs-and-industry-[/url]...[/color]
>[color=green]
> > And here's my comments:[/color]
>
> [Mikey's usual stream of diarrhea snipped.][/color]

But now I understand _WHY_ you consider it "Mikey's usual stream of
diarrhea..."

It's like the people that were talked to from one of the companies
about prize sponsorship for last weekend, and when the industry came
up, it was literally "LA! LA! LA! I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!" with the
figurative fingers in the ear.

You see, it's as I have said before: You _HAVE_ to ignore reality to
enjoy anime as much as you used to anymore.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > That's why I will stand behind the "one more year", even though, with
> > the incompetence shown here, they shouldn't be around today, as I said
> > six months ago.[/color]
>
> Well, guess what? *Despite your "mark my words, people" small poultry
> blather, they're still around today. *They'll still be around in a
> year, like they have for over 15 of them already. *That's why we don't
> take you at all seriously, and never will. *Face it. *So why don't you
> just fuck off and go find a hobby that doesn't involve harassing
> people for a change?[/color]

They're still around today -- three of the six who were nine months
ago, with another 20% drop in sales forecast, Bandai Entertainment
can't afford a decent replicator, so they can't keep a reasoned
schedule at various points throughout 2008 -- read up on four more
delays for fall titles. Dub actors are retiring left and right as the
dub industry is _DEAD_. All it's going to take is Bandai Namco
getting out of R1, Viz finally dissociating itself completely from the
anime industry, and Navarre going under, and there's no industry at
all.

I give that one year, especially with the US economy in such laughable
state.

And, as for that last comment, you got two ways to make me leave:
Jail me or shoot me. Pick one.

Mike

It's amusing how we see these things differently. :-)

[email]darkstar7646@gmail.com[/email] wrote:[color=blue]
> And here's the report:
>
> [url]http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/convention/2008/fansubs-and-industry-panel[/url]
> The whole thing was a farce immediately: The moderator decided not
> to let it, in any way, become "us vs. them". This completely
> undercut the credibility of the panel, in my opinion. The whole
> fansub/legit situation IS "us vs. them", and I think it's clear as to
> which side is winning. To not allow the fire to fly across the table
> basically undercuts the real issues which are going on here. I
> really want to see a knock-down, drag-out war between the sides,
> because that's really what it is. I talked to some fans in LA over
> the weekend, and one told me basically that the industry has to "get
> with reality" -- of course, my immediate response would be that that
> reality no longer includes the industry.[/color]

I think you need to realise the industry does not view fansubbers the
same way you do. They don't hate them like you do. They are realistic,
clear-eyed business people who know what they can and cannot control,
and want to figure out how to win.

Recently, WB spent a huge effort to prevent the Dark Knight from being
pirated on the opening weekend. And that's it. After the opening
weekend, they just perform basic monitoring and interdiction efforts.
In other words, WB knows they cannot stop piracy entirely, but they can
put in just enough to effort to make some money on it. Which is what I
think the legit anime industry needs to focus on -- take down the
streaming sites as fast as possible and realistic interdiction.

Also, never forget that probably half their staff came from the early
days of fansubbing -- there is a fifth column within the industry, if
you will, and they will not view fansubbers as evil.
[color=blue]
> commissioned by Central Park Media, indicates over six million
> fansubs viewed in one recent week. This confirms the earlier
> findings by the Japanese late last year.[/color]
[color=blue]
> And note: That's not just six million downloaded -- that's six
> million just _viewed_. I'll get back to that later with some of the
> more laughable stuff later.[/color]

Remember when someone refused to accept my claim of a similar number? :-)
[color=blue]
> The fansubbers then basically gave the argument that the anime
> companies can't meet the demands of speed and availability. With a
> sales-based model of any kind -- they _CAN'T_. And they won't.[/color]

Selling physical DVDs? No. Selling digital streaming rights on the day
the episode is aired in Japan? Yes. That was their message. They know
they need to find a new revenue model, and what was more interesting was
the veiled complaint that they blame their Japanese partners. I've read
several times now that Japanese companies don't want to do digital
downloads or streaming simply because THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND IT! The
Japanese companies are run by old men who grew up in the publishing
industry. They cannot wrap their heads around the idea that you can
make money selling individual episodes or episodes with ads. From what
I've read from industry insider interviews, they don't want to talk ill
of their Japanese partners, but they feel the Japanese studios and
publishers are not helping the situation with their hyper-controlling style.
[color=blue]
> Good. Now you understand why they can't meet the demands. Because
> the licensing fees are being made so high to recover some of the
> money these fansubbers are snatching out of the Japanese's hands![/color]

That's not what the panel suggested. And from what I've read on
Japanese industry sites, there's still a huge revenue stream in Japan so
international piracy hasn't affected their bottom line. Yet. The legit
industry panelists made an interesting point that the Japanese companies
are beginning to realise the importance of the international market, and
that being nicer to their international licensees might be in their best
interest.
[color=blue]
> Here's another gem for those who think the industry is fine and will
> make it: Dattebayo's own numbers indicate that, in a typical week,
> there are over 600,000 file transfers from their site.
>
> SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND, and just from Dattebayo.[/color]

Remember when I wrote this?
[url]http://groups.google.ca/group/rec.arts.anime.misc/msg/b6304119f70cbc3e[/url]

I was pretty close to the mark. And people didn't believe me... Hmph.
[color=blue]
> And that's just one of these sites. Three of them of just that size
> would beat out the entire legitimate US anime industry. (Probably 2,
> but I will be generous and cut the figure...)
>
> Still want to tell me the industry will survive this?[/color]

An industry will survive. This specific model and companies, probably not.

The more interesting question is: if you could perfectly shut down the
pirates, would Naruto's market really improve? That is: what percentage
of those pirates would actually become paying customers? My gut feeling
is it's pretty low. This is why you don't see Viz spazzing out about
the Naruto fansubbers.
[color=blue]
> Getting into distribution and revenue streams, Sirabella basically
> believes an Internet-only model won't be viable, even though video
> has always been the main revenue stream for anime. Epic fail. It's
> the sales-based model that won't be viable. I've heard people
> actually claim (in discussion about "saving anime" and the like) that
> the anime industry has to find a way to be satisfied with titles
> which sell two thousand copies -- even though that kind of sales
> wouldn't even cover the licensure of the first episode.[/color]

Which brings me to an idea I had a long time ago:

Anime producers should switch to a fee per episode sold. That way, the
risk for the local distributors is less and gives them some hope of
bringing prices down.

The panel made some mention about the licensing costs still being set
arbitrarily, and more interestingly, fansubs having little to no impact
on the licensing fee because it's negotiated after only seeing an
episode or two.
[color=blue]
> Talking about sites like BitTorrent, Heiskell stuck his foot in it
> again, basically saying that sites like that are hard to interdict,
> even though the availability makes such losses undeniable. Without
> interdicting and shutting down these sites, Mr. Heiskell, YOU -- HAVE
> -- NO -- PRAYER -- FOR -- SURVIVAL -- AS -- AN -- INDUSTRY.
>
> That clear enough for you? You shut down BitTorrent, you sue the
> fuck out of YouTube, or there's no more anime industry. The Japanese
> actually wanted to start down that road two years ago, and why they
> haven't sicced Google with billions in damages, I have no freaking
> clue. None.[/color]

Because you don't seem to understand how the international legal system
works for copyright issues. For starters, YouTube is protected by the
"safe harbor" clause of the DMCA -- and that's probably why Viacom is
going to experience epic fail in their lawsuit against YouTube. The
precedent was made in a little noticed lawsuit between Harlan Ellison
and AOL. AOL was sued by Ellison over an act of piracy made by a USENET
poster from a different computer system. AOL appealed and the high
courts agreed: AOL was protected by the safe harbor clause. YouTube
will take down the content if the copyright owner asks.

The more important question is this: Why aren't the companies
(especially the Japanese one) using the easy-to-use YouTube interface to
request infringing content be removed? All the legal streaming sites,
like Veoh, make it very easy for copyright owners to have content
removed. But they're not. I notice every single other content provider
on the planet does it. I click on a link for Most Viewed, and the video
was removed at the request of the copyright owner.

I think the reason is obvious: diminishing returns. It is impossible to
enforce copyrights to the level needed to extinguish fansubs or even
simple piracy. A better approach is to do what the music industry did:
provide such a compelling alternative that you can turn most of the
audience back to legit with only a few token lawsuits.
[color=blue]
> Heiskell then stuffed his foot completely out of his ass for the last
> time when he said the most laughable opinion I've heard on the
> subject (including even most of yours): That, even though fansubbing
> will never disappear, he opines that 30% of anime fans never buy any
> anime.
>
> Six million downloads a week, CPM estimates, and only 30% never buy
> anime??[/color]
[color=blue]
> I'll laugh in your face personally for that number. I'll laugh in
> the face of anyone who wishes to opine that 30% of the fanbase even
> buys ONE BIT of their anime. I wouldn't believe that 30% of the fans
> buy any anime whatsoever??[/color]

No, that is believable if you understand what he said:

70% buy _some_ anime at least once in their life. Maybe a movie special
edition or a particular volume, but they buy something. That is
believable. But unlikely.
[color=blue]
> Then it got to the question of whether the anime companies could get
> more aggressive, to which one fansubber replied he would stop
> fansubbing if requested, but immediately demand a viable alternative
> to watch the anime in question.
>
> WHO THE FUCK DO YOU THINK YOU ARE?? They paid good money for that
> contract, and have the right to ask their terms for when, how, and
> who sees it. I mean, think: At $35K/ep, they paid a half a million
> dollars (a number Gen Fukunaga wants to drop) before they even get
> anyone in the studio to dub it, ADR it, etc.[/color]

I can see your point of view, but at the end of the day, I should remind
you of something Microsoft once said:

"We could force [PC manufacturers] to include a ham sandwich with every
system, but that doesn't mean the customers would buy it."

The licensees can do whatever they want, but it's incredibly silly to
believe that the market should ACCEPT whatever you do to them.

But as the panel stated quite subtely: the real problem is in Japan.
The distributors would LOVE to release subs on-line the same day as in
Japan, but the Japanese companies don't WANT to, and it seems to be for
very silly and arbitrary reasons.

Now if only Gonzo made anime people wanted to WATCH, this might
change... :-)
[color=blue]
> Fact is (and this is why I said that the "overtaking" comment was
> ridiculous): The fansubbers, and the fans, want it all on their
> terms and don't give two shits otherwise. I guess I can answer my
> own question: They think they are the industry. And, as I've been
> saying for a while now, it sounds like they have won out.[/color]

And as I've said: That's not necessarily a bad thing. :-)
[color=blue]
> And to hear some of the things said at the panel by the industry
> types, it's clear they don't get it, and they won't get it: The
> future reality DOES NOT include dubs, DOES NOT include DVD's, and
> DOES NOT include _THEM_.[/color]
[color=blue]
> That's why I will stand behind the "one more year", even though, with
> the incompetence shown here, they shouldn't be around today, as I
> said six months ago.[/color]

And I would point out Funimation's position (ALL CAPS highlighting by me):
[color=blue]
> Recently, it has been suggested that if Japanese anime distributors
> embraced digital distribution of their shows, with English subtitles
> and supported by advertising, on the same day that they were shown on
> Japanese television, much of the issues surrounding fansubbing would
> become irrelevant. Only Heiskell was able to comment on the
> possibility of this happening. SUCH A SCENARIO IS DEFINITELY
> SOMETHING HIS COMPANY IS WORKING ON, and of Funimation's Japanese
> partners, Gonzo has shown itself to be particularly understanding.
> However, it is still extremely difficult to convince typical anime
> production committees that are made up of representatives of many
> different companies that an approach of this kind is ever viable.
> Similarly, Japanese companies are - and will likely remain -
> reluctant to directly use fansubbers' expertise during production.[/color]

Funimation is the only company that seems to really get the "adapt or
die" mentality that will be required to survive the coming shake down.

And as mentioned, this is like the third time I've seen comments from
industry people about the Japanese companies being pains in the ass. I
know from experience they've often been the cause of a lot of the "bad
features" of American anime: Subs being more expensive than dubs,
delayed release schedules, etc.

--
-----
Travers Naran, tnaran at google's mail.com
"Welcome to RAAM. Hope you can take a beating..." -- E.L.L.

Travers Naran wrote:[color=blue]
>
> It's amusing how we see these things differently. :-)
>
> [email]darkstar7646@gmail.com[/email] wrote:[color=green]
> > And here's the report:
> >[/color][/color]
<<snip>>[color=blue][color=green]
> > Getting into distribution and revenue streams, Sirabella basically
> > believes an Internet-only model won't be viable, even though video
> > has always been the main revenue stream for anime. Epic fail. It's
> > the sales-based model that won't be viable. I've heard people
> > actually claim (in discussion about "saving anime" and the like) that
> > the anime industry has to find a way to be satisfied with titles
> > which sell two thousand copies -- even though that kind of sales
> > wouldn't even cover the licensure of the first episode.[/color]
>
> Which brings me to an idea I had a long time ago:
>
> Anime producers should switch to a fee per episode sold. That way, the
> risk for the local distributors is less and gives them some hope of
> bringing prices down.[/color]

Related to this, "Bones" must be congratulating themselves for failing
to get "Xam'd" on television, and instead having to rent it out to
Playstation watchers:

[url]http://blog.us.playstation.com/2008/07/22/xamd-lost-memories-debuts-at-1-on-playstation-network/[/url]

Wow. I should say that again. Wow! I would like to give a huge thank
you from the team here at SCEA, Japan Studio and BONES Studio for making
Xam’d: Lost Memories episode 1 the top video download over the PlayStation
Network for the week of E3. We couldn’t have asked for a better reception
to the service or the series, and you made it happen.

[url]http://ps3.ign.com/articles/890/890097p1.html[/url]

... users can download [rent!] episodes for 2.99 for SD video and 3.99
for HD video of episodes.

Of course, this revenue model sorta sucks for those of us who do not
play video games, or those of you outside the US (*), but at least they're
trying something.

<<snip>>
[color=blue]
> Now if only Gonzo made anime people wanted to WATCH, this might
> change... :-)[/color]

GONZO used to have a workable "split" business model: one or two good,
high-concept titles a year ("Last Exile") plus a lot of watchable, cheap
junk food. Somewhere they seem to have lost control over their quality.

-dbm

(*) [url]http://www.tiamatsreviews.com/?p=1219[/url]

On Aug 19, 8:14 pm, Travers Naran <tna...@gmail.com> wrote:[color=blue]
> It's amusing how we see these things differently. :-)[/color]

It's amusing how I at least have one person who seems willing to have
a reasoned conversation. I hope I may return the favor.

I think it's as you said before: You say it's a "right-sizing", I say
it's all over.

I think where we disagree is that you believe that the "right size",
as things stand right now, is non-zero. I don't, and I'll explain as
we go.
[color=blue]
> darkstar7...@gmail.com wrote:[/color]
[color=blue][color=green]
> > The whole thing was a farce immediately: The moderator decided not
> > to let it, in any way, become "us vs. them". This completely
> > undercut the credibility of the panel, in my opinion. The whole
> > fansub/legit situation IS "us vs. them", and I think it's clear as to
> > which side is winning. To not allow the fire to fly across the table
> > basically undercuts the real issues which are going on here. I
> > really want to see a knock-down, drag-out war between the sides,
> > because that's really what it is. I talked to some fans in LA over
> > the weekend, and one told me basically that the industry has to "get
> > with reality" -- of course, my immediate response would be that that
> > reality no longer includes the industry.[/color]
>
> I think you need to realise the industry does not view fansubbers the
> same way you do. They don't hate them like you do. They are realistic,
> clear-eyed business people who know what they can and cannot control,
> and want to figure out how to win.[/color]

The problem is simple: Without controlling them and stamping them
out, they _CANNOT_ win.

I think the main disagreement here is that you believe that, at some
point, some substantive fraction of the fanbase will pay sufficient
money to keep some substantive fraction (the "right-sizing" you talked
about earlier) of the industry going. I don't. Especially not the
way these guys are thinking.

The entire basis on which they can get a person to pay ANY realistic
price, especially for an English dub, requires that it be done on the
owners' terms or on the license holders' terms. Once it gets to the
terms of the fans, driven by a price-less model (a free model, if you
will), then it's hard to come back.

I re-submit the Ouran example and ask the question again: Even as
popular as Ouran High School Host Club is, do you think Funimation
will move 43,000 titles to cover the $1.3M estimated for each of the
two season sets?? I don't -- Haruhi Effect.

You now have (as some have admitted) a lost generation of anime fans
-- they're no longer going to go to Little Tokyo in LA, take part in
an anime event, see a Funimation screener of "Beck", and consider
buying the darn thing. It's beyond that now. And without controlling
and stamping out the fire which has already consumed three major
companies whole, it'll take the rest with them.

They lost this game months ago, when they decided they were unable to
legally go after the pirates, the fansubbers, and the sites which host
them. One would've thought (with the Napster precedent) that the
Japanese and the American companies could've wiped out YouTube,
BitTorrent, and really any user-driven interface for such pirated
video before illegal anime became the biggest downloaded entertainment
medium on the entire Internet.
[color=blue]
> Recently, WB spent a huge effort to prevent the Dark Knight from being
> pirated on the opening weekend. And that's it. After the opening
> weekend, they just perform basic monitoring and interdiction efforts.
> In other words, WB knows they cannot stop piracy entirely, but they can
> put in just enough to effort to make some money on it. Which is what I
> think the legit anime industry needs to focus on -- take down the
> streaming sites as fast as possible and realistic interdiction.[/color]

Again, it's a different model. If the models were similar, it would
be as if the movie was being shot before all the money needed to make
the movie was raised -- and, on top of it, the piracy could so
completely undercut the mass appeal of the particular movie that
people no longer felt the need to drop their $11 (or whatever it is)
to go to the theatre. (The fact that so many people _ARE_, for
whatever reason, not willing to do so for most movies is why you're
seeing the movie industry becoming more and more like the anime
industry in one respect: the number of movies propping the industry
up is becoming fewer and fewer and fewer).

But the thing is that so many people saw it that TDK made back its
investment, and WB probably thought they had the biggest movie of all
time on their hands, and figured they could keep the DVDs selling
(which, _unlike anime_, is ancillary in the case of wildly-successful
movies like this) with only normal actions. Anime's "normal actions"
have been found laughably wanting in this regard.
[color=blue]
> Also, never forget that probably half their staff came from the early
> days of fansubbing -- there is a fifth column within the industry, if
> you will, and they will not view fansubbers as evil.[/color]

Back in the earlier days of the industry, fansubs may have had a
purpose. That the industry (on both sides of the Pacific) couldn't
put the clamps on it when that purpose was ended will be their cause
of death.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > commissioned by Central Park Media, indicates over six million
> > fansubs viewed in one recent week. This confirms the earlier
> > findings by the Japanese late last year.
> > And note: That's not just six million downloaded -- that's six
> > million just _viewed_. I'll get back to that later with some of the
> > more laughable stuff later.[/color]
>
> Remember when someone refused to accept my claim of a similar number? :-)[/color]

Or mine. And I kept hammering and hammering and hammering it. And I
did it for the following reason:

Every week that 6,000,000 episodes are viewed illegally (I'll keep the
$40/13 eps, though that is, for many series, quite low for season
sets), over $18,000,000 is lost to the anime industry. This would
mean that the anime industry loses its entire 2007 DVD market _every
14 weeks_. That's why I believe you could easily sue for billions.
The last two years alone, they could probably claim a minimum of
almost $2 billion in losses to the pirates and thieves.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > The fansubbers then basically gave the argument that the anime
> > companies can't meet the demands of speed and availability. With a
> > sales-based model of any kind -- they _CAN'T_. And they won't.[/color]
>
> Selling physical DVDs? No. Selling digital streaming rights on the day
> the episode is aired in Japan? Yes. That was their message. They know
> they need to find a new revenue model,[/color]

Then they need to stop -- dead stop -- the old model, because they
won't have the money for the change-over if it should occur. (They
probably don't now -- on either side of the Pacific -- and that's why
I think the whole matter is screwed.) And they need to stop it _RIGHT
NOW_. Every week is another $18M down the tube, PLUS the amount of
good money they continue to throw after bad.

Essentially, also, all dubs would have to cease, except for a very
very _VERY_ few properties (almost, if not, exclusively foreign-
television properties and the biggest of the movies). As stated, dubs
more than double the real cost of bringing a series to America. If
"bringing a series to America" becomes obsolete (as it almost
certainly would in this model), then so will dubs.

The main reason you don't see this happen?? Very simple: There would
be zero need, with the possible exception of licensors of foreign-
television properties, to continue the industry with intermediaries
like the R1 companies. Funimation and Bandai Ent. would cease to
exist -- they would no longer be needed. Viz would be another
question, as they have television properties which can also be seen as
merchandising for their manga (one of the reasons they don't want
anything to do with the industry at large).
[color=blue]
> and what was more interesting was
> the veiled complaint that they blame their Japanese partners. I've read
> several times now that Japanese companies don't want to do digital
> downloads or streaming simply because THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND IT![/color]

The Japanese needed to be told (the moment that JASCRA started going
after YouTube) was that it was either going to be that they were going
to have to understand what was going on and deal with it _then_, or
they have no chance to survive the tidal wave which has swept them
under. In one of my rants, I said that if the companies did not have
the money to prosecute the thievery on all levels (the sites, the
fansubbers, the fans), they didn't have the money to make the anime
anymore.

It's clear -- now -- they don't have the money to make the anime
anymore.
[color=blue]
> The Japanese companies are run by old men who grew up in the publishing
> industry. They cannot wrap their heads around the idea that you can
> make money selling individual episodes or episodes with ads. From what
> I've read from industry insider interviews, they don't want to talk ill
> of their Japanese partners, but they feel the Japanese studios and
> publishers are not helping the situation with their hyper-controlling style.[/color]

First off, the Japanese owners and creators have the right to be hyper-
controlling. It costs _THEM_ about 105 million yen or so ($1M) to
create one episode of anime. It's clear, from many accounts, they
aren't getting the necessary monies back through the revenue streams
to keep it going much longer.

The Japanese should have the right to demand anyone who watches their
programming outside the "free" television to pay for it. That's off
the Net, DVD, or whatever other means they find. The fact is that you
can say it's "hyper-control", but what stuns me is, if they're so
hyper-controlling, why can't they be that way with the other means the
shows are getting out?

I mean, think: In the day and age of skyrocketing unemployment, you
could actually (and I'm being deathly serious here) employ quite a few
computer-literate people whose job would be (be you a television
network, the WWE or UFC, the anime industry, or whatever) to go on
sites like YouTube, find all the offending material, and have it taken
down. If a serious effort were made to do this for any significant
length of time, YouTube would simply disintegrate down to just those
who _DO_ desire legit content, and Google will lose their shirts AND
their pants.

A side comment on the flip-side, though, a recent spate of Funimation
C&D's does leave me with one question: If a C&D does NOT
automatically mean the company has already licensed the series, why
would the thieves cease and desist? Perhaps a better way to state
it: What legal standing would Funimation (unless they were the sole
R1 licensor left -- and it's not quite there _yet_...) have to issue
such situations and have them be legally binding?

Secondly: Say you do go to an ad-based model. Again, the cost of the
ads would have to be enough to make it financially worth it for all
parties. (This is why you hear such ridiculous numbers for Super Bowl
ads.) How do you do that when you can't even control where these
shows end up? What stops a fansubber from fansubbing an ad-free
viewing and undercutting the entire process again -- much similar to
what they do now to the DVD industry?
[color=blue][color=green]
> > Good. Now you understand why they can't meet the demands. Because
> > the licensing fees are being made so high to recover some of the
> > money these fansubbers are snatching out of the Japanese's hands![/color]
>
> That's not what the panel suggested.[/color]

That was part of my comments. :) You see, the good thing that fans
believe is the lowering of prices is going to put the Japanese out of
business. As you know because I've mentioned it, Gonzo is officially
insolvent right now (or, at the least, liabilities > assets). How
many of these companies are going to keep up if the licensing fees
can't be recovered either?
[color=blue]
> And from what I've read on
> Japanese industry sites, there's still a huge revenue stream in Japan so
> international piracy hasn't affected their bottom line. Yet.[/color]

My understanding is that that's almost completely merchandise.

Whatever the revenue stream is, one then has to ask the question: Why
not just divorce R1 completely out of the equation, and basically say
"buy it import or go away" to the fans?? This is why I didn't
completely divorce the BVUSA model, because I think it was based on
basically understanding that a US price model isn't sufficient to keep
things going.

Why not just get rid of an increasingly expensive and unnecessary
middleman?
[color=blue]
> The legit industry panelists made an interesting point that the Japanese companies
> are beginning to realise the importance of the international market, and
> that being nicer to their international licensees might be in their best
> interest.[/color]

But it's irrelevant if no one can stop actions by the fans (and
supposed fans) that make the product worthless. The international
market has no importance at all if the real financial value of the
product being sold in said market has been declared zero.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > Here's another gem for those who think the industry is fine and will
> > make it: Dattebayo's own numbers indicate that, in a typical week,
> > there are over 600,000 file transfers from their site.[/color]
>[color=green]
> > SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND, and just from Dattebayo.[/color]
>
> Remember when I wrote this?[url]http://groups.google.ca/group/rec.arts.anime.misc/msg/b6304119f70cbc3e[/url]
>
> I was pretty close to the mark. And people didn't believe me... Hmph.[/color]

Of course they didn't. Again, it's a matter that, to enjoy anime in
any real respect, you almost have to be in abject denial of the
present state of the industry and the role of the fans therein. Which
is why I hold many anime fans in such disgust around here.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > And that's just one of these sites. Three of them of just that size
> > would beat out the entire legitimate US anime industry. (Probably 2,
> > but I will be generous and cut the figure...)[/color]
>[color=green]
> > Still want to tell me the industry will survive this?[/color]
>
> An industry will survive. This specific model and companies, probably not.[/color]

This is probably why you and I can have a sensible discussion. You,
at the least, understand that this model and these companies are
goners. How much of the rest of it goes is going to depend on how
quickly what is left cuts bait.
[color=blue]
> The more interesting question is: if you could perfectly shut down the
> pirates, would Naruto's market really improve? That is: what percentage
> of those pirates would actually become paying customers? My gut feeling
> is it's pretty low. This is why you don't see Viz spazzing out about
> the Naruto fansubbers.[/color]

The problem then comes in: Is Naruto an anime, or just a part of a
gigantic merchandising franchise?

If it's the latter, it explains why Viz doesn't really want anything
to do with the _anime_ industry, since the anime is not an end to the
means, but only a means (and not that significant of a one -- with
headbands, cards, posters, manga, blah blah blah) to an end.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > Getting into distribution and revenue streams, Sirabella basically
> > believes an Internet-only model won't be viable, even though video
> > has always been the main revenue stream for anime. Epic fail. It's
> > the sales-based model that won't be viable. I've heard people
> > actually claim (in discussion about "saving anime" and the like) that
> > the anime industry has to find a way to be satisfied with titles
> > which sell two thousand copies -- even though that kind of sales
> > wouldn't even cover the licensure of the first episode.[/color]
>
> Which brings me to an idea I had a long time ago:
>
> Anime producers should switch to a fee per episode sold. That way, the
> risk for the local distributors is less and gives them some hope of
> bringing prices down.[/color]

And then the Japanese go out of business, since they can't hope to get
enough money to keep going. Again, remember that Gonzo is already
effectively (if not actually) officially insolvent. Anime series like
the entire FMP arc and the two seasons of Kaleido Star never get made,
much less completed.

I'm not saying the reasoning isn't sound, but the problem is that the
Japanese are starving the animators to begin with and still not
covering costs, in many respects.
[color=blue]
> The panel made some mention about the licensing costs still being set
> arbitrarily, and more interestingly, fansubs having little to no impact
> on the licensing fee because it's negotiated after only seeing an
> episode or two.[/color]

Part of that is because, in cases like I've mentioned, a lot of the
licensing fee has to be an "advance", since the series might not be
able to be completed if they don't get a license at a good price.
(This is part of what Gen Fukunaga has been trying to cut down.)
[color=blue][color=green]
> > Talking about sites like BitTorrent, Heiskell stuck his foot in it
> > again, basically saying that sites like that are hard to interdict,
> > even though the availability makes such losses undeniable. Without
> > interdicting and shutting down these sites, Mr. Heiskell, YOU -- HAVE
> > -- NO -- PRAYER -- FOR -- SURVIVAL -- AS -- AN -- INDUSTRY.[/color]
>[color=green]
> > That clear enough for you? You shut down BitTorrent, you sue the
> > fuck out of YouTube, or there's no more anime industry. The Japanese
> > actually wanted to start down that road two years ago, and why they
> > haven't sicced Google with billions in damages, I have no freaking
> > clue. None.[/color]
>
> Because you don't seem to understand how the international legal system
> works for copyright issues. For starters, YouTube is protected by the
> "safe harbor" clause of the DMCA -- and that's probably why Viacom is
> going to experience epic fail in their lawsuit against YouTube.[/color]

Then the anime industry is finished, and a lot of other entertainment
media will go with it. If YouTube is allowed to only quarter-ass it's
way through with the "safe harbor" provision, why does it really _have
to_ remove _anything_?

Second question: What makes them any real different than Napster,
who, apparently, did not have such "safe harbor" provision?
[color=blue]
> The precedent was made in a little noticed lawsuit between Harlan Ellison
> and AOL. AOL was sued by Ellison over an act of piracy made by a USENET
> poster from a different computer system. AOL appealed and the high
> courts agreed: AOL was protected by the safe harbor clause. YouTube
> will take down the content if the copyright owner asks.[/color]

Why should it have to? And, on top of it, why is there not the demand
by the copyright owner that makes it a blanket statement that any
copyrighted material by that owner is automatically to be taken down
(unless they choose to start availing some of the other systems which
allow this content to remain up)?
[color=blue]
> The more important question is this: Why aren't the companies
> (especially the Japanese one) using the easy-to-use YouTube interface to
> request infringing content be removed? All the legal streaming sites,
> like Veoh, make it very easy for copyright owners to have content
> removed. But they're not. I notice every single other content provider
> on the planet does it. I click on a link for Most Viewed, and the video
> was removed at the request of the copyright owner.[/color]

I don't understand why they don't go further and demand compensation
from the uploaders, on top of it. But I can't answer that question.
[color=blue]
> I think the reason is obvious: diminishing returns. It is impossible to
> enforce copyrights to the level needed to extinguish fansubs or even
> simple piracy. A better approach is to do what the music industry did:
> provide such a compelling alternative that you can turn most of the
> audience back to legit with only a few token lawsuits.[/color]

And the problem is that they aren't even doing _THAT_. As I've said,
the ONLY reason that the iTunes model works is because of those
lawsuits. Without those lawsuits, there's no need to purchase the
product. There's no obligation to purchase the product.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > Heiskell then stuffed his foot completely out of his ass for the last
> > time when he said the most laughable opinion I've heard on the
> > subject (including even most of yours): That, even though fansubbing
> > will never disappear, he opines that 30% of anime fans never buy any
> > anime.[/color]
>[color=green]
> > Six million downloads a week, CPM estimates, and only 30% never buy
> > anime??
> > I'll laugh in your face personally for that number. I'll laugh in
> > the face of anyone who wishes to opine that 30% of the fanbase even
> > buys ONE BIT of their anime. I wouldn't believe that 30% of the fans
> > buy any anime whatsoever??[/color]
>
> No, that is believable if you understand what he said:
>
> 70% buy _some_ anime at least once in their life. Maybe a movie special
> edition or a particular volume, but they buy something. That is
> believable. But unlikely.[/color]

Even if that is what he said, and I do believe that is what he said,
my statement stands. I find 70% buying even one anime laughable. I
find _30%_ buying even one anime laughable. This is where I think you
and I part some company.

I mean, think it over: Many cons have doubled their attendance (where
possible) in the same era where DVD sales (even before inflation) have
more than halved??? WTMF??? The numbers do not add up. Where's the
increase in the number of attendees (if it's not coming from pirates
and thieves and the like), since the number of DVDs sold is slashing
20% a year, and will almost certainly do it for the third year in a
row this year?

This is why I made the comment that I do not believe 80% of the people
going to an anime con have any right to be there.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > Then it got to the question of whether the anime companies could get
> > more aggressive, to which one fansubber replied he would stop
> > fansubbing if requested, but immediately demand a viable alternative
> > to watch the anime in question.[/color]
>[color=green]
> > WHO THE FUCK DO YOU THINK YOU ARE?? They paid good money for that
> > contract, and have the right to ask their terms for when, how, and
> > who sees it. I mean, think: At $35K/ep, they paid a half a million
> > dollars (a number Gen Fukunaga wants to drop) before they even get
> > anyone in the studio to dub it, ADR it, etc.[/color]
>
> I can see your point of view, but at the end of the day, I should remind
> you of something Microsoft once said:
>
> "We could force [PC manufacturers] to include a ham sandwich with every
> system, but that doesn't mean the customers would buy it."[/color]

But here's the thing: At that point, there should be no PC's for the
people who don't buy it.

You see, I do not buy into (in any form) the difference between
stealing a physical product and one of intellectual property. If the
product being sold is not the anime when one is sold an anime DVD,
then what is it? The DVD as merchandise?

If the anime itself is the product, then people who fansub and the
like are doing the same as if I waltzed into a Best Buy and stole a
PS3 (which is the only way I'm going to have one any time soon)...
[color=blue]
> The licensees can do whatever they want, but it's incredibly silly to
> believe that the market should ACCEPT whatever you do to them.[/color]

Why??? The licensees should dictate to the market. And all the
market can then do is say yes or no. If they say no, they _don't get
the product_ (such as why I'm not going to have a PS3 any time soon).

They bought that right (for six or seven figures, in many cases)...
And they should expect an opportunity to recoup that cost. Without
that expectation, there is no market and no industry.
[color=blue]
> But as the panel stated quite subtely: the real problem is in Japan.[/color]

Then, frankly, the real problem is Japan recognizing that the US
actually can provide them enough money to substantively survive. If
the problem _is_ Japan, there is but one solution: Cut off R1.
Diminishing returns, again. (You've gone from $550M in 2004 to $250M
in 2007, with the expectation of it being $200M in 2008). You are not
going to be able to effectively enforce the legal right to your
product to allow for R1 to be a meaningful industry anymore. Get rid
of them and save the expense of having to deal with them.

Since R1 can't effectively enforce their legal rights to the product
they license, the license then becomes useless and worthless. Ouran
could be the biggest seller of 2008, but is it going to get the
necessary number of copies to even break even? No, Hell No, and Hell
Freaking No!

The only real alternative is to make it an all-import business, and do
the subs in Japan and be done with it.

An offshoot of this is that it could make the cons even _bigger_,
because it'd be the only way many would be exposed, at entry-level, to
the product.
[color=blue]
> The distributors would LOVE to release subs on-line the same day as in
> Japan, but the Japanese companies don't WANT to, and it seems to be for
> very silly and arbitrary reasons.[/color]

Then they need to be slapped (and I know what a slap means in Japan)
and told, simply, that their stands have made it far too late for most
of them to survive economically. Period.
[color=blue]
> Now if only Gonzo made anime people wanted to WATCH, this might
> change... :-)[/color]

They don't have three years to make a watchable project anymore.

(KS was a three-year project.)
[color=blue][color=green]
> > Fact is (and this is why I said that the "overtaking" comment was
> > ridiculous): The fansubbers, and the fans, want it all on their
> > terms and don't give two shits otherwise. I guess I can answer my
> > own question: They think they are the industry. And, as I've been
> > saying for a while now, it sounds like they have won out.[/color]
>
> And as I've said: That's not necessarily a bad thing. :-)[/color]

Why not? If you basically slash the entire economic value of the
anime itself to zero, how could the industry continue and why would it
in the first place?
[color=blue][color=green]
> > And to hear some of the things said at the panel by the industry
> > types, it's clear they don't get it, and they won't get it: The
> > future reality DOES NOT include dubs, DOES NOT include DVD's, and
> > DOES NOT include _THEM_.[/color][/color]
[color=blue][color=green]
> > That's why I will stand behind the "one more year", even though, with
> > the incompetence shown here, they shouldn't be around today, as I
> > said six months ago.[/color]
>
> And I would point out Funimation's position (ALL CAPS highlighting by me):
>[color=green]
> > Recently, it has been suggested that if Japanese anime distributors
> > embraced digital distribution of their shows, with English subtitles
> > and supported by advertising, on the same day that they were shown on
> > Japanese television, much of the issues surrounding fansubbing would
> > become irrelevant. Only Heiskell was able to comment on the
> > possibility of this happening. SUCH A SCENARIO IS DEFINITELY
> > SOMETHING HIS COMPANY IS WORKING ON, and of Funimation's Japanese
> > partners, Gonzo has shown itself to be particularly understanding.
> > However, it is still extremely difficult to convince typical anime
> > production committees that are made up of representatives of many
> > different companies that an approach of this kind is ever viable.
> > Similarly, Japanese companies are - and will likely remain -
> > reluctant to directly use fansubbers' expertise during production.[/color][/color]

Here's the problem with that theory: You still have to make sure
that, if the scenario ever is allowed to come to fruition, that you
can still make the issues irrelevant and force (yes, _FORCE_) people
to actually do something that I believe the vast supermajority of
anime fans refuse to do: pay for the content.

It does NO GOOD to same-day and charge $3/episode for a legal same-day
sub if you don't terminate all illegal subs which most fans would wait
24-48 hours for and pay nothing for. Multiply $3/ep by any decent-
length season, and you'll see why.

Again, I'm not disputing the logic in the emphasis, but there is a
much larger issue. It goes back that I find the 30% laughable as far
as only 30% never will buy. I'd put it much closer to 80% if not
more.
[color=blue]
> Funimation is the only company that seems to really get the "adapt or
> die" mentality that will be required to survive the coming shake down.[/color]

The shake down is already here. Geneon's titles are now with Funi.
ADV's titles are now with Funi. BVUSA has been folded into Bandai
Entertainment.

Mike

On Aug 19, 10:44*pm, D B Malmquist <d.b.malmqu...@com.swap-com-and-
rcn.rcn> wrote:
[color=blue]
> Related to this, "Bones" must be congratulating themselves for failing
> to get "Xam'd" on television, and instead having to rent it out to
> Playstation watchers:
>
> *[url]http://blog.us.playstation.com/2008/07/22/xamd-lost-memories-debuts-a[/url]....
>
> *Wow. I should say that again. Wow! I would like to give a huge thank
> *you from the team here at SCEA, Japan Studio and BONES Studio for making
> *Xam’d: Lost Memories episode 1 the top video download over the PlayStation
> *Network for the week of E3. We couldn’t have asked for a better reception
> *to the service or the series, and you made it happen.[/color]

P -- R -- scam.

I want numbers. I want how much money BONES made from that, and
whether that is within expectations which allow them to continue to
remain in business.

They're kissing Sony's ass that they could find any revenue stream at
all.
[color=blue]
> *... users can download [rent!] episodes for 2.99 for SD video and 3.99
> *for HD video of episodes.
>
> Of course, this revenue model sorta sucks for those of us who do not
> play video games, or those of you outside the US (*), but at least they're
> trying something.[/color]

See, if you can read the long comment, the comment I just posted --
you still have to stop everyone else from undercutting that with a
free model. Refuse to do that, and I don't care what you put in
there.
[color=blue][color=green]
> > Now if only Gonzo made anime people wanted to WATCH, this might
> > change... :-)[/color]
>
> GONZO used to have a workable "split" business model: one or two good,
> high-concept titles a year ("Last Exile") plus a lot of watchable, cheap
> junk food. *Somewhere they seem to have lost control over their quality..[/color]

Because they are now insolvent. They don't have the money anymore, and
their recent work shows that out.

Mike

On Aug 19, 10:19*pm, darkstar7...@gmail.com wrote:[color=blue]
> On Aug 19, 6:11*pm, Dave Watson <dwbeingupfr...@gmail.com> wrote:
>[color=green]
> > On Aug 19, 5:29*pm, darkstar7...@gmail.com wrote:[/color]
>[color=green][color=darkred]
> > > And here's the report:[/color][/color]
>[color=green][color=darkred]
> > >[url]http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/convention/2008/fansubs-and-industry-[/url]....[/color][/color]
>[color=green][color=darkred]
> > > And here's my comments:[/color][/color]
>[color=green]
> > [Mikey's usual stream of diarrhea snipped.][/color]
>
> But now I understand _WHY_ you consider it "Mikey's usual stream of
> diarrhea..."[/color]

Because it's malodorous liquid noisily spewing from the hole of an
incontinent fool who constantly snubs suggestions of taking bismuth,
eating yogurt or just going to the toilet until it passes, and then
you wonder why everybody's holding their nose around you.
[color=blue]
> It's like the people that were talked to from one of the companies
> about prize sponsorship for last weekend, and when the industry came
> up, it was literally "LA! LA! LA! *I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!" with the
> figurative fingers in the ear.
>
> You see, it's as I have said before: *You _HAVE_ to ignore reality to
> enjoy anime as much as you used to anymore.[/color]

*splutter* Like I should take notes on what "reality" is from a
fucking stalker.
[color=blue][color=green][color=darkred]
> > > That's why I will stand behind the "one more year", even though, with
> > > the incompetence shown here, they shouldn't be around today, as I said
> > > six months ago.[/color][/color]
>[color=green]
> > Well, guess what? *Despite your "mark my words, people" small poultry
> > blather, they're still around today. *They'll still be around in a
> > year, like they have for over 15 of them already. *That's why we don't
> > take you at all seriously, and never will. *Face it. *So why don't you
> > just fuck off and go find a hobby that doesn't involve harassing
> > people for a change?[/color]
>
> They're still around today -- three of the six who were nine months
> ago, with another 20% drop in sales forecast, Bandai Entertainment
> can't afford a decent replicator, so they can't keep a reasoned
> schedule at various points throughout 2008 -- read up on four more
> delays for fall titles. *Dub actors are retiring left and right as the
> dub industry is _DEAD_. *[/color]

So who's retired? Cite cases and supply links, or shut your festering
slophole. And how would you know that Bandai can't afford a decent
replicator? Are they telling you this, or are you just supposing
that's the case?
[color=blue]
> All it's going to take is Bandai Namco
> getting out of R1, Viz finally dissociating itself completely from the
> anime industry, and Navarre going under, and there's no industry at
> all.[/color]

Jesus, can't you wet-dream about sex with people like normal humans do
(although I have my own reasons to wish that Viz would go out of
business)?
[color=blue]
> I give that one year, especially with the US economy in such laughable
> state.[/color]

So if the industry is still alive one year from now, will you finally
go away? Please?
[color=blue]
> And, as for that last comment, you got two ways to make me leave:
> Jail me or shoot me. *Pick one.[/color]

Tough as fried shit, this boy. Jesus, you sound like the pathetic
hair metal fan losers I went to high school with.

Watson.

On Aug 19, 11:14*pm, Travers Naran <tna...@gmail.com> wrote:[color=blue][color=green]
> > SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND, and just from Dattebayo.[/color]
>
> Remember when I wrote this?[url]http://groups.google.ca/group/rec.arts.anime.misc/msg/b6304119f70cbc3e[/url]
>
> I was pretty close to the mark. *And people didn't believe me... Hmph.[/color]

It's not your numbers people didn't believe, it's that those numbers
mean what you think they mean that they disagreed with. All those
reasons they disagreed then still apply now. Repeating the numbers
don't change that.

[email]darkstar7646@gmail.com[/email] wrote:[color=blue]
> On Aug 19, 8:14 pm, Travers Naran <tna...@gmail.com> wrote:[color=green]
>> It's amusing how we see these things differently. :-)[/color]
>
> It's amusing how I at least have one person who seems willing to have
> a reasoned conversation. I hope I may return the favor.[/color]

Thank you. :-)
[color=blue]
> I think the main disagreement here is that you believe that, at some
> point, some substantive fraction of the fanbase will pay sufficient
> money to keep some substantive fraction (the "right-sizing" you talked
> about earlier) of the industry going. I don't. Especially not the
> way these guys are thinking.[/color]

I can understand why you see the industry as spiralling to zero, but
hopefully I can defend my position of it being non-zero.
[color=blue][color=green]
>> Recently, WB spent a huge effort to prevent the Dark Knight from being
>> pirated on the opening weekend. And that's it. After the opening
>> weekend, they just perform basic monitoring and interdiction efforts.
>> In other words, WB knows they cannot stop piracy entirely, but they can
>> put in just enough to effort to make some money on it. Which is what I
>> think the legit anime industry needs to focus on -- take down the
>> streaming sites as fast as possible and realistic interdiction.[/color]
>
> Again, it's a different model. If the models were similar, it would
> be as if the movie was being shot before all the money needed to make
> the movie was raised -- and, on top of it, the piracy could so
> completely undercut the mass appeal of the particular movie that
> people no longer felt the need to drop their $11 (or whatever it is)
> to go to the theatre. (The fact that so many people _ARE_, for
> whatever reason, not willing to do so for most movies is why you're
> seeing the movie industry becoming more and more like the anime
> industry in one respect: the number of movies propping the industry
> up is becoming fewer and fewer and fewer).
>
> But the thing is that so many people saw it that TDK made back its
> investment, and WB probably thought they had the biggest movie of all
> time on their hands, and figured they could keep the DVDs selling
> (which, _unlike anime_, is ancillary in the case of wildly-successful
> movies like this) with only normal actions. Anime's "normal actions"
> have been found laughably wanting in this regard.[/color]

DVD sales are still a huge part of the equation for Hollywood studios.
I can't find the articles now, but a significant fraction of films
recoup their investments on DVD sales. Even the big ones. Although,
this is a good point to bring up the difference between the Hollywood
movie market and the anime market.

It seems like a significant part of the movie-watching population does
not pirate. Enough to give the Dark Knight a good opening weekend and
to ensure it will have a monster DVD debut. The Anime market (the fan
base), as you've brought up before and I don't entirely disagree with,
has an outsized since of entitlement to anime. They seem to act like
they are OWED anime and that it's somehow bizarre that anime should be
PAID for. (Cf. that cartoon from AnimeNewsNetwork I posted awhile ago)

I've been wondering why anime seems to attract this kind of fan base who
wants it free and wants it now. I suspect it's a combination of high
prices and the industry (esp. in Japan) reacting far too slowly to want
their market wanted -- quick availability of anime in their local
language. And I think that can still be done, but I'll get to it later.
[color=blue][color=green]
>> Also, never forget that probably half their staff came from the early
>> days of fansubbing -- there is a fifth column within the industry, if
>> you will, and they will not view fansubbers as evil.[/color]
>
> Back in the earlier days of the industry, fansubs may have had a
> purpose. That the industry (on both sides of the Pacific) couldn't
> put the clamps on it when that purpose was ended will be their cause
> of death.[/color]

I can't entirely disagree with you there, either. But I don't think the
industry realised what _kind_ of fan was being bred in this environment.
One who is highly demanding, but so greedy and selfish that it never
occurs to them that they should pay for their demands.

The people on this newsgroup aren't really part of that group. This new
breed of anime fan eschews USENET and other "old school" anime fandom
hang outs. For example, AX maybe growing, but I doubt it's grown as
fast as the real fan base. Because of this, they aren't exposed to the
old culture and mores which kept a lot of the old school honest. And it
explains why places like this newsgroup don't realise just how bad the
situation is out there.

I didn't realise it either until I found myself working with them
recently, and it was eye-opening and a little appalling to me (as I've
said several times already).

They made FUN[1] of me for buying anime. O_O

[1] It wasn't with heat, but they still thought it was weird.
[color=blue]
> Every week that 6,000,000 episodes are viewed illegally (I'll keep the
> $40/13 eps, though that is, for many series, quite low for season
> sets), over $18,000,000 is lost to the anime industry. This would
> mean that the anime industry loses its entire 2007 DVD market _every
> 14 weeks_. That's why I believe you could easily sue for billions.
> The last two years alone, they could probably claim a minimum of
> almost $2 billion in losses to the pirates and thieves.[/color]

But I'm not convinced that if you could perfectly end piracy that you'd
recoup that money. My gut feeling is that if you could perfectly end
piracy, the fast majority of them would simply stop watching anime. I
do not believe they would have ever been a buying crowd.
[color=blue][color=green]
>> Selling physical DVDs? No. Selling digital streaming rights on the day
>> the episode is aired in Japan? Yes. That was their message. They know
>> they need to find a new revenue model,[/color]
>
> Then they need to stop -- dead stop -- the old model, because they
> won't have the money for the change-over if it should occur. (They
> probably don't now -- on either side of the Pacific -- and that's why
> I think the whole matter is screwed.) And they need to stop it _RIGHT
> NOW_. Every week is another $18M down the tube, PLUS the amount of
> good money they continue to throw after bad.[/color]

We agree. :-)
[color=blue]
> Essentially, also, all dubs would have to cease, except for a very
> very _VERY_ few properties (almost, if not, exclusively foreign-
> television properties and the biggest of the movies). As stated, dubs
> more than double the real cost of bringing a series to America. If
> "bringing a series to America" becomes obsolete (as it almost
> certainly would in this model), then so will dubs.
>
> The main reason you don't see this happen?? Very simple: There would
> be zero need, with the possible exception of licensors of foreign-
> television properties, to continue the industry with intermediaries
> like the R1 companies. Funimation and Bandai Ent. would cease to
> exist -- they would no longer be needed. Viz would be another
> question, as they have television properties which can also be seen as
> merchandising for their manga (one of the reasons they don't want
> anything to do with the industry at large).[/color]

And that is kind of my view except that Funimation would be the one
handling the few dub releases. It's a smaller market, but it would
exist. And I suspect Funimation would position itself as the digital
assistant to Japanese companies. In other words, Funimation would
become a service organization for these Japanese companies. As we've
now seen, Funimation would track down and enforce copyrights, and I
suspect Funi may try to enter the digital market on BOTH sides of the
Pacific--probably aided-and-abetted by Gonzo.

More interestingly, Viz has been quietly branching out to be more than
an anime/manga company. I've got several novels (non-anime/manga
related) translated and published by Viz. As I've said before: Viz is
merely the North American releasing arm of its Japanese masters.
[color=blue][color=green]
>> and what was more interesting was
>> the veiled complaint that they blame their Japanese partners. I've read
>> several times now that Japanese companies don't want to do digital
>> downloads or streaming simply because THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND IT![/color]
>
> The Japanese needed to be told (the moment that JASCRA started going
> after YouTube) was that it was either going to be that they were going
> to have to understand what was going on and deal with it _then_, or
> they have no chance to survive the tidal wave which has swept them
> under. In one of my rants, I said that if the companies did not have
> the money to prosecute the thievery on all levels (the sites, the
> fansubbers, the fans), they didn't have the money to make the anime
> anymore.
>
> It's clear -- now -- they don't have the money to make the anime
> anymore.[/color]

To be fair, that began happening 10 years ago. All the companies
gambled big starting around the mid-90s on a huge anime boom in Japan
and they produced literally hundreds of hours of anime. I remember
NewType getting one of its staffer to stay in a hotel room for a week
and watch ALL 100+ hours of anime available on TV a week. They
overspent on a lot of bombs, and in such a weakened state, digital
piracy hit them.

It reminds me of Colony Collapse Disorder in the bee-keeping industry:
no single cause explains it, but when you add up the causes, it's a
miracle the hives lasted so long. In this case, the studios
over-extended themselves, got ripped off by the TV Networks[2], dealing
with rising labor costs[3] and now the pain of digital piracy eating
into their revenue streams especially from over-seas.

[2] I can't find the damned article now, but a couple years ago, the
Japanese government acted on complaints from the studios that Japanese
TV networks were grossly understating their revenues on anime.

[3]The limiting factor of production in anime is labor, and guess what
-- the unlimited pool of otaku labor has maxed out and the China & Korea
animation factories are maxed out so wages/prices have risen.
[color=blue]
> First off, the Japanese owners and creators have the right to be hyper-
> controlling. It costs _THEM_ about 105 million yen or so ($1M) to
> create one episode of anime. It's clear, from many accounts, they
> aren't getting the necessary monies back through the revenue streams
> to keep it going much longer.
>
> The Japanese should have the right to demand anyone who watches their
> programming outside the "free" television to pay for it. That's off
> the Net, DVD, or whatever other means they find. The fact is that you
> can say it's "hyper-control", but what stuns me is, if they're so
> hyper-controlling, why can't they be that way with the other means the
> shows are getting out?[/color]

That's not what I'm talking about. By "hyper-controlling", I mean
demanding that over-seas releases be delayed by up to a year so there
can't be any reverse importing. By RE